– “The day after the referendum will be in Brussels and an agreement will be signed.” He assured the Prime Minister greek Alexis Tsipras in an interview with the TV antenna. Meanwhile, Standard & amp; Poor’s estimated output of Greece Eurozone could cost Italy 11 billion higher charges on the public debt . Our country would be faced with the increase “largest ever” of the euro area: the departure of Athens could cost 30 billion in 2015-16.
From our correspondent Antonio Bartolomucci
According to S & amp; P therefore “the effects on the economies of the Eurozone will be felt mainly through higher returns “to be paid on government bonds. In fact, since Greece” a small economy and traditionally more closed “to other eurozone countries,” the direct effects on trade “would be” limited ” . If the rating agency highlights the risks for Italy, for the Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, however, with the Grexit “Italy would not have any specific economic problems. But anyway Athens will not exit from the euro”.
If you exclude Cyprus (with 19% of exports directed to Greece in 2013) only the Macedonia (4.2%) and Malta (3.3% ) “export more than 2%” in Greece. “Even though Greek imports fell by 50% in the following year” to Grexit, “the direct impact on Germany, France and Italy would reduce the total exports between 0.3% and 0.5% “and with a loss of GDP” for these economies between 0.2% and 0.3%. “
S & amp; P” the main effect “on the Eurozone, and” especially on countries peripheral, would materialize through the capital markets. ” “The most significant impact of a” farewell to the euro of Athens “would be the reintroduction of a premium linked to currency risk, as the membership of the eurozone is no longer perceived as irrevocable.”
The rating agency expects as “an initial peak in yields” of sovereign bonds, “especially for those economies perceived by the markets as fiscally more ‘vulnerable’. The “prize” is intended to be “permanent” although the Q and the ECB will be the “roof” to returns. S & amp; P estimates the higher cost of refinancing public debt in the Euro 30 billion, “the increase will be unevenly distributed, with Italy that will address the biggest rise ever, amounting to 11 billion”.
On the Greek accounts intervenes then again even the IMF, that the finances of Athens deteriorated further due to the slowness in launching economic reforms: last year it was expected a decline of greek debt to 128 % of GDP, while the deficit has now returned to rise and will be 150% by 2020. For the IMF, then Greece would need new funding to 50 billion euro until 2018 to meet all’insostenibilità of its debt. But reiterates the IMF, Athens “is precluded from getting new aid until it has paid in full its arrears with the Fund”.
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