The “no” and the specter Grexit: suspense for Bags and spread – The Messenger

The alarm red markets.

does for the first time spectrum Grexit – Greece’s exit from the Eurozone – a concrete option.

And the effect, confirm the forecasts of analysts, managers and investment banks, is to assist, at least in the short term, to violent shaking on bags, a fall of ‘ euro and a surge in yields on government bonds of peripheral countries, including btp.

The first effects of the referendum greek already see the reopening of the currency market in Sydney. And then on the Asian stock markets. Over the weekend the Chinese government has strengthened measures (so far ineffective) in support of the Shanghai and Shenzhen, fell by 30% in three weeks by burning 2.8 trillion dollars of capitalization. It was launched a fund to be $ 19.3 billion, were suspended all new listings and 25 operators have committed to not settle for a year of your stocks.

But it is on the Old Bags continent and on government bonds that the ‘no’ of Athens austerity threatens to turn into a tsunami, as indeed has already seen after the decision of Athens to hold the referendum, 287 billion euro burned in session Monday and the Euro Stoxx 50 fell 4.2%. Many managers, reports Bloomberg, fear the ‘chaos’.

Goldman Sachs has forecast an increase in spreads on government bonds of 200-250 basis points, with the yield on the BTP rising even more than 3% , a level which will force the ECB to step up its purchases of government bonds. While the shares will be sold to low hands, the euro Stoxx seen falling to 3,150 points (-8.5% at current levels). Standard & amp; Poor’s a Grexit would cost to Italy 11 billion increase in interest on the debt in the period 2015-2016, the highest account the 30 billion projected for the eurozone.

According to Credit Suisse the ‘no’ makes it ‘difficult “ok for the third program of aid by EU states (six of them, including Germany, must obtain approval in Parliament) to 75% and increases the chances of a Grexit, with a one in three triggering a systemic crisis. The Swiss Institute provides new closures for Greek banks and fixed to July 20, the day of the default, when the institutions of Athens can not repay the ECB and the Eurotower withdraw credit lines emergency. British bank Barclays for the exit of Greece from the euro is the scenario ‘most likely’.