Final, tomorrow the launch in the Council of Ministers – Il Sole 24 Ore

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This article was published on April 7, 2016 at 20:04 hours.
the last change is the April 7, 2016 at 22:51.

the economic and financial planning Document will be tomorrow on the day of the Council of Ministers – is learned from government sources – convened at Palazzo Chigi to 18. Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan was at Palazzo Chigi this afternoon to meet with Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. In all likelihood the meeting between the two was decisive to break the deadlock, given that in the afternoon were filtered rumors about a possible postponement to Monday 11, after the deadline of 10 April, but the first day to have them examined Rooms at the Def.

In the last few hours before the launch of Def there will be a final assessment of the macro framework, starting from a full stop, at least for 2016 GDP growth, still formally it estimated at + 1.6%, It will be revised downwards. Fork would fall between 1.2% and 1.3%, although there is still among the technicians who does not totally rule out that it can be positioned at a height of 1.4 percent. The 2016 growth in real GDP in the revised version would be confirmed at least for the years 2017 and 2018, although it was not yet shelved the idea of ​​placing the bar all’1,5-1,6 percent.

In any case, the real GDP estimated for 2019 will be higher. The final choice of the growth forecast depends on the calibration of the nominal GDP for 2016 and 2017, with a variation in real terms amounted to 1.2-1.3%, is expected to exceed (although not by much) 2% . And in this way it should be possible to maintain commitments on reducing the debt / GDP ratio.

Getting back to this year, the deficit-GDP ratio is expected to remain placed at 2.4%, even if the balance is under the lens of the EU Commission, undertaken to evaluate the flexibility of spaces to be granted Italy. If Brussels does not get the go ahead to the use of the entire margin requirement, the Government must conduct an “administrative” adjustment, approximately 2.5000000000-3000000000 relying on resources from voluntary disclosure, the savings on interest and possibly by a reshaping of the culture package last law of stability.

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