At the moment there seems to be was the feared backlash on the Stock exchange to the effect of the unexpected victory at the presidential elections of the Usa of Donald Trump. Outputs can be penalized only to the asian exchanges, with the Nikkei, which has closed with a decline of 5.36% 16.251,54 points. The price lists in europe, after an opening that it was difficult to predict the worst, you are gradually approaching to zero. The Ftse Mib of Milan lost 2.4%, the worst in Europe.
The future of the S&P
In the Usa futures on the S&P are, however, of 5%, and those on the Nasdaq 5,08%, and those on the Dow Jones 4.3%. The euro is making record iu up more than 2% on the dollar, marking the highest rise since December 2015. Salt instead of gold: the safe haven asset par excellence. Precious metal is over 1300 dollars an ounce (+2%).
The haven of German government bonds
investors seem to focus on the shelter offered by the German Bund and the bonds of old Europe. Prior to the opening of the secondary market for european performance of the Bund (the title of the German State), which yesterday had closed around 0,18% is now below the threshold of 0.1 percent. The spread between Btp and Bund, dating back to 167 basis points, reviewed the highest since the referendum on the Brexit of June. The yield of ten-year Italian is to 1,72%.
The comparison with the Federal Reserve
The victory of Donald Trump brings “a volatility in the short term with a flight to the refuge assets such as gold, the swiss franc and yen. In this context we should, however, remain “focused on the fundamentals that are strong, there is no recession”. The indication comes from Lorenzo Portelli, strategist at Pioneer Investments, which emphasises “the positive note” is that, at this point, “the monetary policy will be more accommodating”, also because “this epochal change” will have “clear repercussions” on the possibility of a reconfirmation of the Fed, Janet Yellen ready for a rate hike in December.
Europe, a bulwark of Stability?
According to an analysis of the Allianz Global Investor’s “equity stock exchange in the european, may become – ironically – a bastion of stability compared to those in the us. Within fixed income, in the short term, we believe is likely to: a phase of aversion to risk, lower returns and a flattening of the curve”. “The unpredictability of Trump and his lack of political experience are more than enough reason to face the coming months with a certain amount of care,” stresses Stefan Kreuzkamp, the Chief Investment Officer at Deutsche Asset Management, noting that “despite this, investors have to keep your wits about you” because it is not to forget “that the key constant of the electoral campaign of Trump was that of surprise constantly to the public: it is quite possible that, after his election, he may in fact surprise the markets in a positive way”.
After the first reaction to the downside of the Us market, with a “flight to safety”, the analysts at Ubs expect that in the medium term, the stock to recover, as fundamentals should be better than the political uncertainty and the actions the U.s. can bounce on the push of an acceleration in growth of earnings per share, Ubs sees rise from 1% this year to 8% the next. Some sectors could take advantage of an easing of regulation, such as financial services and energy, writes the swiss bank. Others, such as those related to the defence, which could benefit from a more supportive fiscal stance.
November 9, 2016 (change the November 9, 2016 | 12:37)
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