According to the european Commission the economic growth in Europe is expected to continue at moderate pace because the progress in the labour market and the increase in private consumption “are counterbalanced by a number of barriers to growth and the weakening of the factors that sustain it”. Private consumption should remain the main engine of growth for 2018, supported by the expectation that employment will continue to grow and that there is a slight upturn in wages. The finance costs are favourable due to a monetary policy exceptionally accommodative”. The deficit of the aggregated balance sheet of euro area will continue to decline, while fiscal policy should remain “non-restrictive” and the investments will increase. This is the general framework offered in the autumn economic forecast. On the prospects of growth are a burden, however, “political uncerta inty, slow growth outside the Eu and the weakness of world trade”. In addition, there remains the risk that “the mediocre economic performance of recent years from slowing the growth, and the stagnation persistent indicates the possibility to grow more rapidly without undue inflationary pressures”. It should be borne in mind that in the coming years, the european economy can no longer rely on the outstanding support which has benefited due to external factors such as the collapse of oil prices and the depreciation of the currency.
The comment Moscovici
According to Pierre Moscovici, responsible for economic affairs, “in 2017, the growth will continue in a context that is less favorable than in the spring, but the pace of job creation, supported by recent reforms in many countries, the decrease of the public deficits in the euro area, the recovery of investment and the greater dynamism of intra-Eu trade factors are particularly encouraging.” For this reason, “we must make every effort to safeguard and strengthen recovery and to strive to benefit all segments of society”.
growth and cost of living
The numbers of the autumn of the Eu Commission speak of growth in the 19 Countries that share the euro, slowing to 1.7% this year and by 2.0% in 2015 and a further decline to 1.5% in 2017, before rising to 1.7% in 2018. Inflation, which the Ecb wants to keep under control, but close to, 2% over the medium term, will rise by 0.3% this year from zero in 2015 and 1.4% in 2017 and 2018. The Commission added that the impact of Brexit on growth depend on the outcome of the negotiations, and it is still possible to stroke the path in the forecast.
the numbers of The deficit
still more in the detail of the estimates of the Eu Commission, the public deficit of the euro area is expected to fall from 1.8% of Gdp this year to 1.5% in 2017 and 2018, thanks to the decrease of social transfers linked to unemployment, wage moderation in the public sector, and low interest rates, which make it less costly to service the debt. It provides for a reduction of the debt/Gdp ratio from 91,6% in 2016 and 89.4% in 2018.
work
On the face of the work, however, unemployment in the euro area should decrease with “relative speed”, passing from 10.1% in 2016 and 9.7% next year and to 9.2% in 2018, writes to the Eu Commission in the autumn forecasts of. For the euro area, precise Brussels, this is the lowest level recorded since 2009, which, despite being far lower than the peak of 12% recorded in 2013, it remains far from the minimum level of 7.5% reached in 2007.
inflation in Italy
The rate of inflation in Italy in 2017 will be 1.2%, and therefore lower than expected in may, when it was estimated at an altitude of 1.4%. According to the Eu Commission, and then, the next year the Italian inflation will increase a little less than in the Eurozone, where the forecast is “see” a growth in the cost of living to 1.4%.
November 9, 2016 (change the November 9, 2016 | 13:50)
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