“, Continues the phase of uncertainty for the Italian economy, with signs of a slowdown in consumption, accompanied by a significant increase in the purchasing power of households and the improvement in trend
of employment”. Is the photo provided in the latest note monthly by Istat , noting that “the leading indicator does not signal the prospects of acceleration of economic activity in the last months of the year.”
Consumption, flat calm in August. In decline, sales of food
falling spending in consumption families
On the front of the families, in the last few months, we have begun to see signs of deceleration in the dynamic of consumption expenditure. In August the retail sales in volume showed a decrease (-0,2% compared to the previous month), confirming the negative tone highlighted in the previous month (by 0.3%). The decrease in sales contributed food goods (-1%), while non-food items showed a slight increase (+0,2%). In October, for the third consecutive month, consumer confidence has declined, reinforcing the negative trend that started in January. Between the components of confidence, worsened the climate of economic, personal and current, while the future climate showed a reversal of trend.
In August fly turnover and orders
positive Signals from the turnover and orders in industry
In August, remember the note from Istat, the level of industrial production has marked a substantial increase compared to the previous month (+1,7%) leading to an increase in the average of the quarter June-August 2016 (+0.4%) as compared to the previous quarter. In the same month, the turnover and the orders of the industry (net of constructions) show a short-term change markedly positive (respectively +4.1% and +10,2%). The growth of the turnover has involved all the sectors, and in particular, capital goods (+7.3%) and durable consumer goods (+4.6 per cent). In addition, the turnover has recorded a positive trend both on the domestic market (+4.1%) of both the international market (+4.3 percent). In the first eight months of the year, however, both the turnover of the internal and foreign declined over one percent. In the same period, the total orders decreased due to a drop in the domestic component only pa rtially offset by the increase of the foreign one.
positive Signs on employment. Now, it’s an appropriate response
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the trend of The labour market
the evolution of The labour market is in line with the levels recorded in the second quarter. In September there was a slight growth of employment (+0.2% compared to August); however, at the quarterly level, employment remained stationary after the increase in the first six months in the year (223 thousand employed in most in the period from January to June). In the third quarter of employment permanent employee continued to increase, although at a pace lower than those of last year (+0.3% compared to the previous quarter), together with the fixed-term employees (+0,5%). The growth of employment total employees (+0.3%) and returned to the levels of 2008, was offset by the contraction of self-employment (by 0.8%) . On A quarterly basis, the unemployment rate continues to hover, as well as, in the same period and remained substantially stable rate of inactivity (down by 0.1%, from 15 to 64 years).
positive Signals from export
exports and imports value showed an increase of the economic (respectively +2.6% and +4,4%), leading to August, the level of trade flows with foreign countries the maximum of the values over a year. In the average of January-August, the dynamics of foreign sales in terms of value is kept constant by 0.1%, compared with the average in the same period of 2015), while the flow of purchases from foreign markets has marked a decline of 2.5%. For exports, the trade outside the Eu have registered a new momentum in September: the value of international sales marks the fourth increase in the economic in a row, albeit content (+0,5%), while imports showed a contraction (-4,1%).
In manoeuvring the new discounts for the safety of the houses
positive Signals from the construction
positive Signals come from the construction sector: in August, the production index has registered an increase (+3.4% compared to the previous month). In the average of the first eight months of the year, however, the production index corrected for calendar effects remained unchanged compared to the same period of the previous year. In October, the confidence index of the construction companies has continued to improve. In the second quarter of 2016, in the presence of a dynamic still weak housing prices (down 1.4% trend variation), the purchase and sale of residential properties have registered a significant increase (+22.9% compared to the same period of the previous year).
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