Thursday, November 3, 2016

POINT 1-Italy, unemployment rate dates back to September for a net decrease in the inactive – Reuters

(adds details and comments) - ROME/MILAN, November 3 (Reuters) - The unemployment rate has started to rise again in September, returning to levels seen at the beginning of the year, due to a reduction in the number of inactive, while the slight increase in employment is attributable to the increase of the self-employed and is accompanied by a decline in employees permamenti and at the end. It is the framework sketched by the numbers in the provisional disseminated this morning by Istat, which confirmed the difficulties of the Italian labour market to reduce the reservoir of unemployed generated by the crisis, in a context of economic recovery, which remains overall moderate. In detail, the unemployment rate in September rose to 11.7%, equaling the peak of this year, touched in January and February. Istat revised to 11.5% since August, initially indicated at 11.4%. The median estimates of economists collected by Reuters in a poll for the September issue of the outlook was for a r   eading of 11.4%. To increase the rate of unemployment has been the reduction of the inactive, i.e. people who are out of the market and not looking for a job and in September fell than 127,000 units, down 0.9% on the month. In parallel, the number of employed grew to 45,000 units, equal to 0.2%. The unemployed rose by 60,000 units, registering a monthly growth of 2%. "Today's numbers are less negative than it seems, because the increase in the rate of unemployment is essentially the result of the marked reduction of inactive, which could be due to the decrease of the discouragement effect," said Paolo Mameli, an economist of Intesa Sanpaolo. Of the same opinion Paolo Pizzoli, an economist of Ing "those Who don't have a job, evidently, believes it is appropriate to search for it actively more than before, and this is a positive note". The growth of employment recorded in September is mainly due to the increase of self-employed workers (+56.000), while a decrease monthly for the emplo   yees of both to the end (-10.000) or permanent (-1.000). The dynamics is interpreted as the sign of a more cautious sentiment of businesses in the light of economic prospects are not glittering: right at the end of September, the government has revised downwards the estimate of Gdp growth for both this year and next, in the light of an economy that remained steady between April and June. Also, confirm a weakening of the incentive effect of the tax benefits for hiring for an indefinite time, that the enterprises will continue to benefit until the end of this year, albeit to a lesser extent than the year 2015. LABOUR MARKET STABLE IN the THIRD QUARTER Looking at the numbers on a quarterly basis, the permanent employees between July and September rose by 0.3% compared to the previous quarter, while overall employment remained unchanged. Since last year, the appointments to permanent posts shall be made in the legislation introduced by the Jobs Act, which makes it less costly individual    dismissals. "We can say that in the third quarter there has been a substantial stabilization of the labor market, consistent with a framework of growth, not just sparkling," stresses Paolo Pizzoli, an economist of Ing At the perimeter of the annual increase of the permanent workers of 1.8%, equal to 264,000 units, an increase of 1.2%, or 265.000 units, the registered holder of the whole of the occupied in the same period. "The overall trend remains one of an improvement, but very slow... for all of 2017, the unemployment rate remains more than 11%, plan to Mameli, that does not exclude the possibility of a revival of the effect of incentives in the last few months of the year, the last in which the companies can benefit from it. Less optimistic from this point of view is Pizzoli, according to which the phase of political uncertainty, linked to the outcome of the constitutional referendum on 4 December, which could open a phase of political uncertainty, may induce firms to a more he   ightened. For an overview on the markets and news in Italian language, quotes, charts and data, subscribers Eikon can type in the Search Box in Eikon "Page Italy" or "Panorama Italia" On the site www.reuters.it other news Reuters in Italian. The top news also on www.twitter.com/reuters_italia

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