Thursday, July 2, 2015

Greece, Merkel’s hard line: stop the negotiations until the referendum – The Messenger

Athens raises, but for Berlin it’s too late: it is not before the vote. The premier greek Alexis Tsipras insists, however, and claims to want an agreement with creditors, who also accused of blackmailing Greece. Then reiterates its call to vote no to the proposal of the creditors in the referendum on Sunday. No one, however, that – precise Tsipras – not against Europe and does not mean leaving the euro.

Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, yesterday in Berlin where he met Angela Merkel, criticized the decision to call a referendum: a mistake, Greece face reforms. In the night phone call between Renzi and Barack Obama: “All work to bring Greece on a road
 and financial reform. “

Markets cautious today after the rise yesterday, with markets betting on a last-minute agreement. Puiazza Affairs in startup is slightly positive. Other weak European markets.

Tsipras then goes ahead with its referendum again inviting the Greeks to vote “no” and Europe freezes all negotiations. Until Sunday falls silent creditors, because any attempt to reach an agreement, even beyond the last minute, failed, and now expects the vote of the Greeks. Even the ECB is put in standby mode: has left unchanged the maximum level for the provision of emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to Greek banks, which was set at 89 billion.

The Merkel has decided to go and see the way the game you’re playing Tsipras, by convening a consultation risky, with an uncertain outcome and the consequences that no one can predict. For that creditors flinch, without closing the door but away from the arena in which these days has seen two political worlds collide and two different ways of thinking about Europe.

Save the Greece is no longer, for now, their problem: “The EU is not able to help anyone against his will,” warns President Donald Tusk. The European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker has also tried to collect the latest proposal of Tsipras contained in a letter arrived near the end of the program in which it reiterated the stakes on tax and pensions. The Commission, also in the program has expired, would have assessed and perhaps incorporated in a possible new plan, that is, the third aid package that asks Tsipras. But Brussels can not move without the Eurogroup. To start negotiations on a new rescue plan calls first for the go-ahead, implicitly tied to the green light of the Heads of State and Government.

Despite the opposition of Merkel to negotiate immediately a third plan, Athens probably could snatch at least one aperture or a preliminary green light. In return, however, would have to concede something: the withdrawal of the referendum or at least a change of line-up, pushing the Greeks to vote for yes.

Europe fears the consultation Greek because he sees the meaning exclusively political because, from a technical standpoint, the question is also not correct because “it is no longer on the table”, as noted Commission Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis. So a victory not, it would be a real rejection of Europe.

Tsipras, however, decided to keep going on his way, and again yesterday in a speech to the nation renewed its invitation to a negative vote, that “does not mean saying no to Europe but to return to a Europe of values” .

The agency Moody’s meanwhile cut its rating of Greece to ‘Caa3′ from ‘Caa2′. The rating remains under review for further possible downgrade. “Without the support of official creditors, Greece will default on debt” held by individuals, said the rating agency. The announcement of the referendum has further increased the risk for private creditors, says Moody’s. A victory of the no to the referendum “probably would increase the risk of an exit” of Greece “from the euro, which would result in significant losses to the creditors of the private sector.” If Greece wants to continue to maintain the obligations to official creditors and private institutions in the coming years, “need to reach a lasting agreement with its official creditors.”

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